• 60 Posts
  • 1.45K Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 14th, 2024

help-circle








  • The European court of auditors (ECA) said the EU was much better prepared than before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine of 2022, but achieving its goal of defence readiness by the end of the decade would be difficult.

    I’m sure if it became more pressing and necessary, some things would change much more rapidly, just like decoupling from Russia and increased defense spending did.

    What is “defense readiness”?

    the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said “readiness 2030” meant “to have rearmed and developed the capabilities to have credible deterrence” and “an industrial base that is a strategic advantage”.

    I don’t know. The EU seems plenty deterrent already, certainly to invade, but also economic strength. Could more strength deter someone like Putin? I don’t know, who doesn’t go by reason? Seems like a pretty diffuse definition and goal to call doubt on “the goal” or “readiness”.

    Maybe the negative framing is necessary to pressure for an effective military that would be better able to defend and act? What does “defend” mean? There would certainly be damage no matter the strength.














  • Currently, Putin could use a NATO response, depending on what it is, as justification for mobilization and continuing his war. Probing NATO is not only about disrupting NATO.

    You can see in Ukraine how they use terror to break Ukraine, not realizing it makes them more committed and united. The same flaw is in their theory and approach towards European nations. They hope sabotage and terror will push insecurity and fear, disagreement and reduction of support.

    This airport is apparently a significant military or Ukraine support hub. So there is a pretty direct benefit too, as well as hope of criticism of support to Ukraine, because of security or economic risk.

    An attack on drone production that sends to Ukraine would fulfill multiple goals in their eyes. A retaliation could give justification for mobilization and continuation.

    Personally, even in the event of a direct attack with soldiers on land, I expect NATO and EU will act decisive but careful. Not necessarily with retaliation, only with defense. They’re driven by policy and reason. Unlike Russia.

    Which, despite plenty of evidence and indication, continues the same strategy at great loss, cannibalizing and destroying itself. Even the “elite” corruption gains, which are still a thing, becomes increasingly volatile and at risk.