Summary

Despite Trump’s 2024 warnings of a market crash under Biden, the S&P 500 is experiencing its worst start to a presidential term in modern history under him, dropping ~15% since Inauguration Day.

This plunge, largely attributed to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies announced post-election (“Liberation Day”), is pushing the market toward bear territory faster than any predecessor since 1957.

The Nasdaq is already in a bear market, and economists increasingly warn the tariffs could trigger a recession impacting widespread stock ownership.