I’m interested in developing the skill to estimate probabilities for real-world situations. What are the best ways to learn this systematically? Are there books, courses, or exercises that teach probabilistic thinking, Bayesian reasoning, or practical forecasting skills?
I want to check this math and see if the AI is gaslighting me.
I’ve heard podcasts about super forecasters, but haven’t come across a systemic way to learn about this. But knowing a name used for this might help in your search
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster
Tetlock. He’s got a few talks on youtube that are very interesting. As someone who called all three recent presidential elections, I almost bought his book so his talks were fairly interesting.