This is a thread specifically for the war, not a general megathread (use the pinned /c/genzedong thread for that).
Please keep related news in this thread rather than making separate posts. Remember to include sources and avoid spreading rumours.
🇮🇷🇺🇸| Some of the energy facilities Iran will target in case ceasefire does not uphold, according to IRINN.
I can tell you that the target bank is much bigger than this:
Qatar »
RasGas: LNG production.
Ras Liffan: LNG productionUAE (Eastern Israel) »
Das Island: Oil and LNG.
Zirku Island: Major offshore oil fieldKingdom of Saudi »
Abqaiq: World’s largest oil producer.
Safaniya: World’s largest offshore oil field.
Khurais: Oil fieldKuwait »
Burgan: 1.6–1.7 million oil barrels/dayNow, that people have been agitating against the US empire actions in Iran, lots of agitators will find this attitude from pro imperialist Westerners that Sony Thang synthesised here:
There is a specific American psychological condition with no official name.
It is the condition of a person who genuinely believes their country has, on balance, been a force for good in the world, and who will experience any evidence to the contrary not as information, but as a <personal> attack.
You are not arguing with their politics when you present them with history.
You are threatening their personality.
Their goodness is not separable from their country’s goodness.
Their innocence is national innocence.
Their pride is imperial pride.
It has all been fused together so completely that historical fact functions as personal accusation.
This is not an accident.
This is the deepest mechanism of imperial culture.
Make the citizen and the empire one psychological unit.
Then any critique of the empire feels like an assault on the self.And people defend their selves with everything they have.
Source -> https://xcancel.com/nxt888/status/2047340650346233980#m
Imperialist Personality Transference Disorder.
Did the war disrupt weather modification on Iran?
Speculations about post-war rainfall
“The notion that the US military induced drought over Iran and/or Iraq is speculative; the notion that the US and UAE are engaged in active weather modification in Iran’s environs is established fact.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/justinpodur/p/did-the-war-disrupt-weather-modification
Another analysis regarding this interesting topic that is making a fuss in the Telegram resistance channels.
Or it could just be that with all the particulate matter in the air from the oil storage fires and the missiles in the air is seeding clouds over Iran. Or even more bizzare an Idea its just a coincidence that the drought is ending at the same time as the war. I’d be more willing to believe it was a gift from Allah than it was the destruction of a us super weapon.
Usa can’t even hide the fact that their ICBMs are 20 years beyond their expiration date and the replacements are 30 years behind schedule on the planning phase. They announced the development of their knock off shahed drones that they use for false flags before they even used them. The could not keep a weather control system under wraps.
Lebanese lawyer Ahmad Alawiyye was killed in action in southern Lebanon. He had decided to leave his law practice to go south and confront the Israeli invasion.
https://xcancel.com/InfosLiban/status/2046727652799619504#m
Honor and glory to this brave fighter.
🫡 rest in power, may your sacrifice be not in vain, fida’i
Is that Arabic? Regardless, it was a shame that someone like that died.
❗️An IDF reserve soldier was seriously injured today as a result of an explosive drone attack
He was injured in a Hezbullah FPV attack. The soldier is likely in coma/ICU with a few missing limbs
Bloomberg: Chinese exporters have started raising prices on everything from swimwear to air conditioners, as the Iranian war has led to a rise in the costs of oil-related inputs, indicating that global inflation in consumer goods prices is likely to accelerate.
Prepare yourselves with the agitprop and orgs, folks. It is going to get tougher for a lot of people. Expect price hikes or even worse which is failed harvest seasons.
From Brian Berletic:
🇺🇸/IRAN - Is the US Blockade on Iran Working?
I fully understand what people are saying about the US blockade “failing” based on claims by both the US Navy and the US government itself.
The US Navy and US gov are saying they have completely stopped maritime traffic to and from Iran.
Analysts are saying this is false - and they are right.
HOWEVER… looking at the same data presented along with these claims- while the US has failed to fully stop Iranian exports - it has just about halved them.
CENTCOM says they’ve turned away around 30 ships and has seized at least 2 more.
Western media claims have admitted around or perhaps more than 30 ships have passed through the blockade.
Some might say halving Iranian energy exports is not a big deal and that Iran could survive this. That is likely true - but there is a bigger picture to consider.
Zooming Out in Both Time and Space
If you zoom out and look at oil/gas exports from both Iran and the entire Middle East to China - you can see the trend taking shape - the slow and approaching near total strangulation of energy exports to China.
These graphs show (based on Western media claims) Iranian oil exports, Middle East oil exports, and Middle East gas exports to China at 3 points - pre-war, the “ceasefire,” and the implementation of the ongoing US blockade on Iran.
As I said before the war started, and as soon as the US called up the USMC MEU - the goal was and is now obviously to close off all energy exports from the Middle East to China - and that is what the data shows.
Of course the US also seeks to harm and ultimately topple Iran - but it is also pursuing this other much higher priority - undermining China.
It is being done incrementally and it is clearly succeeding so far.
China has prepared to weather this blockade - but it is not certain whether they are prepared to challenge or break the blockade itself.
The Realistic Nature of Blockades
It is also important to understand that blockades are not switches that are either completely on or completely off - or static in nature.
Throughout history blockades are announced and imposed - often incrementally - and then tested by those being blockaded resulting in fluctuations over time in terms of efficacy.
There will be efforts to circumvent or break the blockade by Iran and its allies, and there will be attempts by the US to adapt to and overcome these efforts.
Based on superficial daily “noise” from US President Trump and CENTCOM - the US blockade has “failed.”
Based on data regarding pre-war, post-ceasefire, and post-US blockade energy exports from the region - the blockade is most certainly succeeding in driving energy exports from the region to China toward zero.
Yet the US is by no means in an unassailable position.
It is simply capitalizing on operational momentum and initiative - plenty has been done by the multipolar world to prepare for precisely this scenario and it remains to be seen whether or not US momentum and initiative is enough to overcome these preparations.
There are many numbers floating out there - so I will share some others with you - before the conflict oil from the entire region in barrels per day were estimated to be as high as 6.5 million - now down to around 4.5 million today.
That number includes Iranian oil.
The amount of Iranian oil getting through will depend on how many tankers are actually making it all the way to China vs. those turned backed or seized by the US.
There are no alternative numbers for gas - most sources agree gas shipments are nearly completely shut down from the Middle East to China.
Map to contextualize what is happening:
Source -> https://xcancel.com/BrianJBerletic/status/2047175377357856963#m
deleted by creator
I guess my question is, supposing this analysis is on point, what would be the end goal? Provoke China into a war? It’s not like China is gonna sit there passively forever and Iran is far from passive themselves. And to my understanding, China’s dependency on energy imports is a lot less than some of the US’s own allies, with a lot more resiliency in things like solar and so on. Also, IIRC, when the US tried to cripple China on computer chip stuff, China adapted and used what it had on hand more efficiently. It’s hard to imagine them being able to do much about China’s trajectory at this point without bombing it and China is more than capable militarily to fend them off if it comes to that. So is it simply desperation or is there something I’m not seeing here?
Well, the most perceivable end goal that I see from his analysis is to inform regular people. As for China, I have seen in XHS people talking about the gas prices and some others being happy about their EVs.
Regarding China’s dependency, it is still important for the analysis. Let me use a small graph from 2025 to contextualize this.
If we add Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq; we get a total of 31.7%. Now, we are missing to add the Venezuelan(4% aprox according to Reuters) and Iranian oil(13.4% aprox according to Reuters) to the mix to see how much is the total of oil that is no longer being shipped to China to see the total impact. Using this percentage for each respectively, we get a total of 49.1%. That’s a serious impact.
However, just like you, I am confident that China will be able to bypass this.
Sorry, I meant the end goal of the US blockade, not the end goal of the analysis, I should have clarified that. But thank you for the further context on this, that does indeed sound significant and I will look at it more closely tomorrow. 🙏
Do I smell some weirdly arrogant undertones here, or is it just me?
Hmm, I haven’t sensed any arrogant undertones.
Although, I do sense frustration because his audience or the people that he is getting feedback from are not understanding his analysis.
Yeah, that is the sense i get from most of his analyses too. He is frustrated and has a bit of a pessimistic (but still realistic) streak because so much of his analysis predicting the US empire would get more aggressive as it declines has come true.
But what we also have to remember is that he is not a communist. He may have very good analysis grounded in reality, but he is lacking the revolutionary optimism of a Marxist-Leninist.
That makes a difference in how someone is able to emotionally process all of this.
📸 Oil prices rise back up to $106 USD per barrel as Iran continues to limit passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
💠 The increase in diesel prices has put pressure on truck drivers in the United States
🔹 TeleSUR Network: The sharp rise in diesel prices has put more than 3.5 million truck drivers, who transport over 70% of the US freight, under pressure.
🔴 In the past hours, the circle of battle and war in the region is intensifying. Like previous nights, the positions of terrorist groups in northern Iraq have been targeted by drone attacks, while in southern Lebanon and northern occupied territories, in response to Zionist crimes, the Islamic Resistance of Lebanon is carrying out precise and heavy attacks against the enemy. In the latest attacks, a rocket barrage hit the occupied settlement of Shtula a few minutes ago.
🔹 This video also relates to precise drone attacks on the positions of the Komala terrorist group in northern Iraq.
🇮🇷🇺🇸| CONFIRMED: An hour ago, an Iranian bulk carrier ship carrying a cargo of rice, despite the US Navy’s attempt to seize it, was escorted by the IRGC-Navy and, after safely passing through the Sea of Oman, arrived safely in Iran — Fars
🇺🇸American officials: A shortage of ammunition due to the Iran war could hinder our defense of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
The Pentagon is transferring missiles intended for European countries to military stockpiles.
Bozos are still dreaming about the invasion of Taiwan!
🇺🇸🇮🇷| Headline of the day: A US Navy electronics technician for mine countermeasures ship, on his way to the Strait of Hormuz, was severely injured by a monkey after stopping in Thailand.
He’s been transferred to Japan for medical treatment.
https://t.me/FotrosResistancee/21224
LOOOOL
Even monkeys and bees know these removed are the bad guys.
Critical support to monkeys.
Uncritical support for comrade monkey.
