Some interesting analysis, imv, particularly when it comes to the rise of Gen Z and the diversity within that generation. For example,
Every year, the electorate that made the old duopoly possible shrinks, and the electorate in which the Greens poll in the 30s grows. Over time, this should aid the Greens in the seats where progressive Gen Z concentrates, which is to say the inner urban seats they already contest and a widening ring of middle suburban seats with heavy renter and student populations. The generational tide is the strongest structural argument that the Greens’ long plateau eventually breaks upwards.
But even here, a qualifier is required, and it is an important one.
Gen Z is not only the most left-leaning generation in Australian history. It is also the most diverse. A very large share of this cohort are the children of migrants, or migrants themselves, and through migration alone that share will keep growing. The overseas born and second-generation component of Gen Z behaves differently from its Anglo and established counterpart. It leans left, but it leans Labor.
They need to promise to cut your taxes, and increase everyone else’s, and build more roads and houses with tax cuts.
Because getting third parties to be more competitive requires getting a better system than a Westminster/FPTP electoral system.
An entirely unscientific and more like a vibe:
- The only time they get mentioned in the media is when they are blocking legislation on principle because it doesn’t go far enough. They are regarded as seagulls. Squawks around and randomly takes a shit on anyone or anything.
- Voters don’t understand what policies they actually are for/against. Go look at their website. Also, go look at One Nation’s website and think about how each of those policies helps Gina and harms you.
- Voters don’t understand how to fill out their ballots so they can preference parties exactly how they want. They assume they have to vote either Labor or Liberal. And now they think One Nation is ‘an alternative’
They also had a few collapses of their own, some literal punchups and a pedo
Because they don’t make outrageous claims. Because they don’t promise completely undeliverable outcomes. Because they don’t blame thy neighbour for all your problems. In short, because they’re too rational.
The greens arse relentlessly attacked by low brow media and they just suck at countering it. labor has mainstream visibility and money from whoring themselves to lobbieists, plus a bit of “well my dad used to be a union man” stuff.
The greens and green voters just suck at talking to uneducated people, but most of the country that would agree with their policies aren’t people with uni degrees who sit about debating policies. They had some like Max Chandler snd Scott Ludlam who seemed to get that you’ve gotta tap into the anger and mock the establishment a bit.
It’s tricky though, because the more poncy greenies get upset if you start doing it.
The greens and green voters just suck at talking to uneducated people
🤣 LMAO
I understand they need popularity to get votes and power. But they block and sacrifice mediocre reform for popularity. For example with Max’s favorite, the HAFF, investments need time in the market to grow, delaying it for ~8 months at 10% (2024-25 nominal returns %pa) is 0.66 billion forfeit. I’m not saying that all of that would have been invested in housing, rather than fund growth, but it definitely can’t now.
So how much is the popularity worth? And if they can compromise their strategy for votes for even mediocre reform in a reasonable time, how can we believe they will act different with power?
From their actions rather than their words, It seems to me they are pandering to people want reform, whilst halting the mediocre reform that is happening anyway without them. Because they know the people they are pandering too won’t check their homework. And we are supposed to trust that it will flip and they will be able to negotiate change later?
Because they know the people they are pandering too won’t check their homework.
No, Greens voters are wide awake to what is happening. They just don’t give a shit about mediocre major party “reform” that won’t meaningfully change anything about their lives - that’s what gives Greens senators the license to block legislation. This idea that they’re somehow betraying their supporters is a Labor attack line that has little basis in reality.
won’t meaningfully change anything about their lives
The HAFF would in no way benefit me personally, nor would the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes since they will take some time to do anything, so I agree.
somehow betraying their supporters
I also agree it wouldn’t betray their supporters, I imagine most are well off enough that these changes can be easily sacrificed for the hope of something better.
I think these are policies that are better than, actually nothing. I recognise that there are those less fortunate that they may be just enough to tip the scales for some. I don’t feel good sacrificing them because I thought it didn’t go far enough.
I imagine most are well off enough that these changes can be easily sacrificed for the hope of something better.
Well yes and no. As Kos explained in the article, The Greens voter base is a mix of older and younger educated voters. For the young cohort, who are less financially stable, it’s generally the opposite - they see hardline opposition, even at their own expense, as the only realistic path towards serious major party legislation that will actually have a positive impact on their future. People sometimes make the mistake of assuming low income voters as desperate and willing to take the first hand out they can get, but they also have nothing to lose. That mentality is also why those on the right are willing to gamble with One Nation.
Well it wasn’t blocked in the end, it passed, with good concessions.
This position that they’re obstructionist is weak. They got better outcomes. That’s exactly why I voted for those Green and independent senators and I’ll do it again too.
That said, the Greens and the indies at the end of 24 passed a lot of bills, some in my mind they shouldn’t have.
Note also that anything really good, like those tax concession changes, don’t get a lot of obstruction.
Labor needs to produce better policy.
IMO Gen Z being mostly left is a myth. You get boomers who are left and young that are right. Assuming makes an ass out of you and me.
The truth is Aus has been a very wealthy and affluent country and there are still a lot(from all age ranges) looking to ‘conserve’ that hence the dominance of the liberals in the last 20 years. Shooting down shorten and that glimmer of progressiveness for a corporate sleeze Scott Morrison tells you everything about how a majority values. House prices and coal. That’s why the greens can’t get a foothold. I think greens have had some great policies in the last few years but I find people spout green values but vote the opposite.
I don’t understand the use of the world “tactical” to describe former Greens voters switching to Labor in response to the threat of One Nation. In how many seats were The Greens so competitive on primary votes that they threatened to dislodge Labor? Even if this phenomenon was theoretically possible, it would have occurred at a time when One Nation was not seen as the major threat they are now. One Nation had a +1.44 swing at the last election, they were still largely irrelevant at that time and could not be the cause of this Greens vote plateau.
90% of the time its people steeped in us politics forgetting how preferential voting works
Yeah, also, unless the voters don’t understand the voting system, why would a ideological greens voter put Labor first, when they can just preference them second?
Tactical voting isn’t really much of a thing in Australia, in my opinion and unless someone has strong evidence that people are doing this, it’s very a tall claim to say people are leaving the Greens for Labor to protect against One Nation.
why would a ideological greens voter put Labor first, when they can just preference them second?
Presumably because they think The Greens will receive more primary votes than Labor, but will then lose on preferences to a centre-right or right wing candidate (since a left Greens candidate is less likely to receive a consistent preference flow from the rest of the electorate than a more centrist Labor candidate). So the thought would be to primary the mainstream appeal Labor candidate with the hope that this ensures the seat does not fall to an even worse option. Antony Green explains it in more depth here, using the example of Labor voters voting for teal independents to take down Coalition seats.
As I said, I’m not sure there’s evidence of Greens voters actually being in a position to do this in a seat that would simultaneously have a realistic threat from One Nation. If such a phenomenon exists, it’s not “tactical” voting at all but just, as you say, people not understanding the voting system.
Because Labor is nowhere near as bad as people make them out to be. They are not like the US Democrats, they are a party by and for the trade unions. The Greens policies generally fall into one of four camps:
- Foreign policy (Gaza)
- Solving an American problem that isn’t a problem in Australia (Student debt, etc).
- Completely insane and stupid policies (Rent controls, etc.)
- Policies Labor had previously adopted, but dropped because it cost them an election (Negative gearing/Capital gains, etc.)
They’re paying Palantir to boot people off the NDIS and scrounge money for AUKUS subs.
They’ve sold us out to the US and Israel.
They have betrayed the country.
We now know why Shorten left.
They’re paying Palantir to boot people off the NDIS
No they’re not
scrounge money
The NDIS itself is WILDLY unsustainable, no need for you to scrounge for excuses:
But the cost tells an even starker picture. At the time of the 2015 intergenerational report, Treasury expected the federal budget cost of the NDIS to sit between 0.6 per cent and 0.8 per cent of the Australian economy for decades to come.
Even using the larger figure, that would have meant a cost of around $23 billion in the coming financial year and $28 billion at the end of the decade.
Instead, by the time of the first Albanese budget, the projections for those same years were $59 billion and $100 billion, respectively. By the year 2032, the cost was projected at $128 billion — more than four times the Abbott-era expectation.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-25/how-the-cost-of-the-ndis-blew-out/106604488
They’ve sold us out to the US and Israel.
Israel no, I don’t think they’ve done anything with Israel, afaik the only barest of links even here is that Australia makes a spare part for the F35 program which is hardly selling out
US on the other hand yeah :\
No they’re not
Yeah they are
WILDLY unsustainable
No, that’s AUKUS and we could stop giving pointless tax cuts no one wanted and tax gas exports reasonably.
Yeah, we’re working out what it actually costs to give disabled people dignity of life. What costs were borne by parents and carers before. What it costs to give a disabled person choice over who cares for them and how it’s done.
$23 billion? That’s one and a half years taxing gas exports.
Even with the upper figure, we can afford it. We’re a rich nation.
Now put those numbers against the submarines. Ones we have not got yet, or will get.
Israel no
Israel yeah. A royal commission into antisemitism? Fuck outta here.
Honestly, the only thing weaker than a Labor politician is a Labor voter.
$23 billion? That’s one and a half years taxing gas exports.
That’s what it was SUPPOSED to be
the projections for those same years were $59 billion and $100 billion, respectively. By the year 2032, the cost was projected at $128 billion
For reference, at 128 billion dollars:
1. Introduced in 1909, the age pension is a means tested income support for eligible seniors. In 2024–25, age pension expenditure was $62.2 billion. It was the second largest Australian Government program expenditure (8.4 per cent of the Federal budget)1 and the biggest component of social security payments (42.5 per cent).2
It would be double the age pension which is the largest welfare component
Israel yeah. A royal commission into antisemitism? Fuck outta here.
You should read it and some of the articles and experiences, I knew Universities for example were green woke shitholes but holy hell, the stories coming out are insane
Honestly, the only thing weaker than a Labor politician is a Labor voter.
How’s the view up on your high horse?
Thats what it was SUPPOSED to be.
Yeah, it might be better, and so what? It’s 17 billion at least and that would increase over time. Other countries make a fortune off our gas after we gift it to them.
Don’t be surprised if the Coalition swing on this and fuck Labor over. I’ve already seen my local LNP member get electorate opinion on the proposal.
For reference…
Problem here is that these too are projections on what was happening. That’s largely been fixed. I can tell you that firsthand because I manage an NDIS plan and have done so for about six years, so I know who funded what, who was easier to defraud if I wanted to, who keeps better records and has higher bars now, how hard it was then and now to get the NDIA to fund services you needed and not ones you don’t, all these things which contributed to the huge blowout under the Coalition.
Here’s the facts: it was a piece of cake to invoice under the Coalition system than the current one. They didn’t even ask for an ABN back then, nor required an invoice. Why? Because the Coalition is fine with businesses milking the taxpayer that’s why, and that’s what Shorten fixed. He knew it was largely fixed too, which is probably why he left when he found out this shit was coming. Why one of their MPs was spewing in a rubbish bin outside the caucus meeting that decided this.
Some of the cleaning up of records keeping (which btw I’ve held to a higher standard before this) and registration et al was needed, and helps a lot. We’re clearer on what our service providers can do and charge.
This bullshit they’re running that we can’t afford to keep people’s plans going is bullshit though. What isn’t mentioned by those running this shit is the industry it’s building and built…one of the few that the privatised job networks, another thing Labor is too spineless to address, has fucked over. Businesses, jobs. That’s without the liberty this system provides…turns out that private really does work with this because everyone’s fighting upwards to provide services, not downwards or don’t care like the government and church based systems we used to have. Gives disabled people choice. Dignity in their lives.
You should read it
No I shouldn’t, a RC was not necessary, it was a sop to Israel. All that was necessary, in fact what should have happened, was an inquiry into the Bondi shooting.
Fuck Israel, and fuck Zionism. In the nicest possible way. That is not anti semitic and it isn’t anti Jewish either. Yes, we are kissing their arse.
Hows the view…
Well it’s not a high horse, but thanks for the admission supporting Labor is pretty ordinary.
Yeah, it might be better, and so what? It’s 17 billion at least and that would increase over time.
How unbelievably echo chambered do you have to be to think bigger than medicare and the pension is a good number? Are you not aware of inflation? Are you not aware that most people think it’s a giant money hole filled with fraud?
Other countries make a fortune off our gas after we gift it to them.
Why do you keep pivoting to gas? Do you know anything about why gas has only a small tax as well or are you just going based on a popular greens narrative? Let me guess next comment from you: we need to tax the rich! that’ll pay for the NDIS!
How unbelievably echo chambered…
I was addressing the gas tax with that, not the NDIS amendment.
Are you not aware…
And they’ve been fed shit. The frauds largely gone, and what we’ll get will be harder to pull off now with Shortens work.
The fraud’s around 3% of projected costs. Fuck you people have been sold a beauty.
The projected costs of the NDIS are projected. We pretty much know what we’ll collect on those exports.
Why do you
Well I don’t, I mentioned other things as well. Tax cuts. AUKUS subs. The benefit of businesses within the industry the NDIS is creating.
We need to tax the rich
Well that’s promising a good time because yes we need to raise tax rates on the wealthy. You can’t seriously be arguing that’s bad can you?
Since you’re going on about gas, it has a small tax because our politicians on both the major parties have spines of custard. The PRRT was industry designed. The Americans and the Japanese completely shafted us with that as well.
I think I might know a shitload more about all these things than you. If you’re going to condescend, have something. Make it better than projected data and please stay on topic.
You forgot the most important one:
- Being a smug fuck that looks down on everyone
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Unlike One Nation?
