The week of Donald Trump’s inauguration, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, stood tall next to the president as he made a dramatic announcement: the launch of Project Stargate, a $500 billion supercluster in the rolling plains of Texas that would run OpenAI’s massive artificial-intelligence models. Befitting its name, Stargate would dwarf most megaprojects in human history. Even the $100 billion that Altman promised would be deployed “immediately” would be much more expensive than the Manhattan Project ($30 billion in current dollars) and the COVID vaccine’s Operation Warp Speed ($18 billion), rivaling the multiyear construction of the Interstate Highway System ($114 billion). OpenAI would have all the computing infrastructure it needed to complete its ultimate goal of building humanity’s last invention: artificial general intelligence (AGI).
But the reaction to Stargate was muted as Silicon Valley had turned its attention west. A new generative AI model called DeepSeek R1, released by the Chinese hedge fund High-Flyer, sent a threatening tremor through the balance sheets and investment portfolios of the tech industry. DeepSeek’s latest version, allegedly trained for just $6 million (though this has been contested), matched the performance of OpenAI’s flagship reasoning model o1 at 95 percent lower cost. R1 even learned o1 reasoning techniques, OpenAI’s much-hyped “secret sauce” to allow it to maintain a wide technical lead over other models. Best of all, R1 is open-source down to the model weights, so anyone can download and modify the details of the model themselves for free.
It’s an existential threat to OpenAI’s business model, which depends on using its technical lead to sell the most expensive subscriptions in the industry. It also threatens to pop a speculative bubble around generative AI inflated by the Silicon Valley hype machine, with hundreds of billions at stake.
Venture capital (VC) funds, drunk on a decade of “growth at all costs,” have poured about $200 billion into generative AI. Making matters worse, the stock market’s bull run is deeply dependent on the growth of the Big Tech companies fueling the AI bubble. In 2023, 71 percent of the total gainsin the S&P 500 were attributable to the “Magnificent Seven”—Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft—all of which are among the biggest spenders on AI. Just four—Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta—combined for $246 billion of capital expenditure in 2024 to support the AI build-out. Goldman Sachs expects Big Tech to spend over $1 trillion on chips and data centers to power AI over the next five years. Yet OpenAI, the current market leader, expects to lose $5 billion this year, and its annual losses to swell to $11 billion by 2026. If the AI bubble bursts, it not only threatens to wipe out VC firms in the Valley but also blow a gaping hole in the public markets and cause an economy-wide meltdown.
via https://dair-community.social/@timnitGebru/114316268181815093
I doubt that. Why wouldn’t you be able to learn on your own? AIs lie constantly and have a knack for creating very plausible, believable lies that appear well researched and sometimes even internally consistent. But that’s not learning, that’s fiction. How do you verify anything you’re learning is correct?
If you can’t verify it, all your learning is an illusion built on a foundation of quicksand and you’re doomed to sink into it under the weight of all that false information.
If you can verify it, you have the same skills you need to learn it in the first place. If you still find AI chatbots convenient to use or prompt you in the right direction despite that extra work, there’s nothing wrong with that. You’re still exercising your own agency and skills, but I still don’t believe you’re learning in a way you can’t on your own and to me, that feels like adding extra steps.
I can ask AI things and then check if it is correct somewhere else. It’s very good at guiding you towards knowing things. Sometimes it will avoid giving information, but it is always useful at answering things. It’s like someone you can bother without having to resort to forums or other boards. It advanced my knowledge a lot. I already read a lot, but you can’t ask a book to clarify things.