DANIEL NOBOA— son of Ecuador’s richest man and a political ally of Donald Trump — has been declared the country’s president again following last week’s run-off election. But Luisa Gonzalez, candidate of the progressive Citizens’ Revolution, is refusing to recognise the results, demanding a recount and full audit in the face of widespread irregularities.

Such concerns are understandable. In the first round, both candidates received 44 per cent of the vote. Yet in the run-off, Luisa Gonzalez improbably remained on 44 per cent, while Daniel Noboa surged to 56 per cent. This is despite Gonzalez receiving endorsements from the third-place progressive indigenous candidate, from other progressive parties, and from a prominent figure to her right.

Polls in the run-up to the vote, along with exit and post election polls, also indicated a tight race — with Luisa mainly ahead — not a 12 per cent landslide for Noboa.

If Ecuador’s electoral authorities genuinely wanted to ensure confidence in the process, a transparent vote-by-vote recount could have been conducted in just a few hours. Their refusal to do so, or allow a full audit, will only deepen mistrust in an already shaken democratic process.

I was in Ecuador as part of the Progressive International’s election observation mission. What I witnessed during my week there left me in no doubt: this election was neither free nor fair.

The most shocking moment came on the eve of the vote, when the government declared a state of emergency — effectively suspending key rights like the freedom of assembly. In one chilling scene, armed soldiers wearing balaclavas were onstage during televised updates from the National Electoral Council, in what could only be interpreted as an act of public intimidation. Other unusual measures like imposing a ban on voters photographing their completed ballot papers further undermined confidence.

The election was also marred by major abuses of public resources for electoral purposes. In the weeks before the vote, for example, the government distributed hundreds of millions of dollars in direct payments to citizens in what appears to be vote-buying on a massive scale.

Mexico and Colombia — two of Ecuador’s largest neighbours — have both expressed concern about the election. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said Noboa’s victory was “highly questionable,” while Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro declared his government would not recognise Noboa’s re-election without a thorough audit of the results.

The Organisation of American States (OAS) and the European Union, while recognising the results, have also raised significant concerns. In their preliminary report, OAS observers “noted with concern that the electoral process was marked by conditions of inequality,” citing the misuse of public funds and state resources for electoral purposes. It warned that such practices “erode citizen confidence in democratic institutions.” The European Union noted that the independence and neutrality of Ecuador’s National Electoral Council were widely questioned by political parties and civil society organisations.

Despite all this, Noboa is set to be sworn in for a full four-year term at the end of May, after serving as interim president for the past 18 months.

The politics of this are clear. Noboa was one of a handful of heads of government who attended Trump’s inauguration, along with Argentina’s free-market zealot President Javier Milei and Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. A US intelligence assessment of the Ecuadorian presidential election concluded that a re-election of Noboa would best serve US national security interests.

There are already signs Noboa’s victory threatens to accelerate Ecuador’s slide into authoritarianism. Only days after the election, a leaked blacklist emerged, identifying over 100 progressive politicians reportedly under threat of arrest. Among them was Gonzalez’s running mate, who was harassed while attempting to leave the country for a post-election Easter break.

Fears of a broader wave of repression must be seen in the context of Ecuador’s wider crackdown on basic democratic and civil rights. For the past eight years, Ecuador’s left has been systematically targeted in a campaign of political persecution and legal repression after left-wing president Rafael Correa left office in 2017 with record-high approval ratings.

Ecuador has become a textbook case of “lawfare” — the use of judicial and institutional power by the elites to destroy popular political opponents — a strategy brought to prominence through its use in Brazil against Lula da Silva, to prevent him from winning the 2018 presidential election.

Rafael Correa was himself sentenced in absentia to years in prison in a case widely condemned as politically motivated. He has since received asylum in Belgium. One of his former vice-presidents was jailed and remains imprisoned. While Paola Pabon — a provincial governor in the area covering the capital city — was imprisoned and then placed under house arrest for allegedly inciting “rebellion” after expressing support for anti-austerity protests. Other leaders sought political sanctuary abroad to avoid similar fates.

As the National Electoral Council became a political tool for elite rule, not democratic representation, even the party Correa had founded — and that had governed Ecuador for a decade — was stripped from the left. Attempts to register new political movements were repeatedly blocked.

This authoritarian shift is part of a broader political project: to dismantle every achievement of the decade of successful progressive government under the Citizens’ Revolution.

The next stage of that project is already clear. Ecuador’s oligarchy is now set on scrapping the country’s 2008 constitution, introduced under the Citizens’ Revolution and widely regarded as one of the most progressive in the world. It was the first to enshrine rights for nature, it bans foreign military bases, guarantees the right to food, and stresses that key strategic sectors like energy, telecommunications, and water must be publicly owned.

For the Ecuadorian oligarchy, however, this constitution has always been an obstacle that needs to be removed — and the Noboa government appears determined to do just that.

Doing so would allow it to establish a new US military base in the country. CNN has reported that such plans are already underway. Such a move would cement Ecuador’s return to the status of a subordinate partner to Washington’s regional agenda — where the US props up local elites in exchange for strategic footholds in the region.

All of this is likely to see widespread public opposition. And the Noboa government already faces significant challenges that it has shown itself incapable of resolving over the past 18 months. Poverty is on the rise, the economy is in recession and rolling blackouts have paralysed the country. But most seriously, violence is escalating — with Ecuador in just eight years going from one of the safest to one of the most dangerous countries in Latin America, as the murder rate has soared sixfold.

Noboa’s neoliberal government will offer no solutions to Ecuador’s deepening crises — only ever harsher repression and deepening inequality. For those committed to resisting the global authoritarian wave, championed by Trump, Ecuador will need our solidarity.

Lee Brown was an election observer and previously lived and worked in Ecuador