This is one of the test points. In theory, the US should not have had sufficient time to replenish the entire stockpile of interceptors. So we have to make observations and connect them as evidence to various hypotheses.
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If the stockpile of interceptors is shown to be sufficient, this means either a) the depletion during last year was a rope-a-dope ruse or b) the intelligence on Western production capacity is no longer (or was never) accurate, or c) I don’t know.
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If the stockpile of interceptors runs out faster than in the 12-day war, then we know that the conflict was launched despite these defenses in place. This means either a) there is a new technology in play to neutralize Iranian missile waves, b) the West believes they have sufficient intelligence and capabilities to neutralize Iranian missile waves via blitzkrieg, c) something about the state of the grand chessboard is forcing their hand to act now from a position of weakness, or d) I don’t know
If it turns out the West is attacking from a position of strength, then we will need to assess where is that strength coming from? Is it:
a) superior intelligence, fire power, execution, positioning, timing, and strategy
b) covert infiltration of the Iranian military
c) commitments from Iranian’s neighbors, allies, and others to betray Iran when it is most vulnerable
d) wunderwaffe
e) infiltration and turning of various top Iranian political leaders to trade their survival for a larger Western goal
f) sufficient covert operations functioning within Iran to take destroy them from inside their own territory
g) something elseThe other, and more likely scenario is that Israel pushed the US into this war despite the US not being well equipped for it. This whole idea that the US is playing 4D chess is a really unlikely scenario in my opinion. Just look at Ukraine, plenty of people predicted that it would be a disaster, but the US decided to dive into it anyways. There was no master plan there. They had a hare brained scheme to try and crush Russia’s economy, and when it predictably failed, they had no idea what to do after. I expect this will play out much the same way.
That’s probably a subset of 2c. Israel sees the state of the grand chessboard and acts from a position of weakness, changing the state of play and requiring the US to act from a position of weakness.
But as always with us, Yog, I will caution that we should be actively seeking evidence to invalidate our hypotheses and current expectations so that we have a mor clear eyed picture of the ongoing processes.
Naturally, we’ll have to wait a bit to see what actually happens. All we can do in the meantime is go by past experience. I think Ukraine is very illustrative here, and we can also look at Yemen and how that played out. My impression is that the US made another blunder, but obviously I can’t know that for sure right now.
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“defense”
