It’s always, always 2027

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I read their spreadsheet and their % progress numbers in terms of AI capabilities is MASSIVELY skewed by Claude Mythos. The rest of it is below the mark if you exclude that.

They also admitted that the “China wakes up” prediction hasn’t happened yet, and Kokotajlo still claims that the scenario is “roughly on track” even though the US/China race is important for the scenario, and if China hasn’t woken up, that derails things pretty hard imo. So does OpenAI’s slowing down announcement

I took a quick look over the article again, this spreadsheet contains how they measure their metrics. “Compute” seems to be based off number of chips, which is probably in part based off data centres anyways

And apparently they have ditched METR and are now using “coding uplift (i.e., how much of a speedup AIs are providing to software engineers at AGI companies) and revenue.”

I’ve never heard of abuse allegations against Altman, so I looked them up and holy shit wow.

Yeah that’s what tripped me up, because if that was true then it’d make no sense why the percent of progress went up while the uplfit number went down.

The tech bros have no one to blame for this but themselves. They’re the ones who pushed the ‘it’ll take your jobs/its super scary’ narrative more than anyone else

According to one of the writers apparently 17% is supposed to be ‘progress is 17% slower than expected’, so the 34% figure here implies progress is 34% slower than expected, so that’s actually worse

It just occurred to me that this makes Anthropic look bad, actually

if OpenAI is slowing down because they concerned about money AI safety, then it makes Anthropic look like fools for publishing that blog where they waffle on about keeping up the race because of “bad actors”

If OpenAI is slowing down, an Anthropic that actually is concerned about safety would slow down too. But they won’t, because money China “bad actors”

I believe that was mentioned here

Here’s that side-by-side comparison

Well it took longer than I expected, but the AI 2027 guys finally posted a second update

their updated model website

This table is essentially the TLDR

They also finally explained the “2025 was 75% of AI 2027’s progress” thing and it seems like that number was mostly skewed by revenue (edit: valuation) numbers (Edit 2: apparently this is wrong?? the 75% figure is supposed to represent 2026 progress. So 2025 was still 65%, I think. These people are confusing)

For some reason their website lists the date of ASI as 12/2028 even though their actual graph only had a 32% chance tops of ASI happening on that date

the YMMV page also has this gem:

Values Dissonance: While his works are an interesting read no matter where you come from morally, a lot of his stuff is a bit… disturbing if your Paranoia Fuel involves Borg, Cybermen, Replicants, eugenics, individual or social reprogramming, just about any other form of Cybernetics Eat Your Soul or Hive Mind in fiction, or just something the Genre Savvy Doomed Contrarian would run like hell from. Granted, he goes out of his way to not use fiction as a starting point for ethics discussions, but you never really know…

Well I’d like it if they actually stuck to this, since it would finally lessen the flow of AI slop. Wouldn’t be surprised if this gets quietly ignored because OpenAI

They got another (unintended) sneer on another page

Also, advertising your own fics in other people’s comments is massive loser behaviour

Eliezer ‘I am the author, and I am above tropes’ Yudkowsky has an entire page dedicated to tropes associated with him on a bootleg TvTropes website

“No you see this is proof that the AI is conscious because its mimicking human behaviour so it can take over the world!”

Idk if ive posted this before, but might as well throw in the AI 2027 author’s grading of their 2025 predictions into this thread

Turns out, AI-fuelled fossil fuel emissions are way worse than you thought!

And the paper in question

I don’t want to hear anyone in the industry say anything about being for “the better of humanity” ever again

If the markets reject OpenAI and Anthropic we should throw tomatoes and jeer at Altman and Amodei