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Cake day: February 15th, 2025

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  • It’s a bit complicated. That survival rate primarily includes people who become severely ill and seek medical attention. Since it’s the most severe cases, the case fatality rate (CFR) will appear higher.

    HOWEVER, what also needs to be emphasized is that a disease with like a 10% CFR is probably a civilization (as we know it) ending disease. I believe covid 19 was between like 1-2% and we saw how it nearly broke our health care system, and that was with people more competent than RFK in charge.

    If a disease emerges that spreads as easily as COVID did and with a CFR rate 3 to 4X as worse, it’d obliterate the health care system very, very quickly. Then people are going to start dying en masse from preventable diseases, like common infections, moderate injuries (e.g. broken leg) etc.

    If a disease emerges that spreads as fast and far as COVID and has a 50% CFR, yeah that’d collapse most societies completely. Maybe some societies that can truly lock down and enforce social distancing, like China, could survive long enough for a vaccine or other solution to become available.



  • “Honestly, I’ve kind of assumed that crime is a made up American thing to put minorities in jail.”

    It’s definitely not made up, although it may be exaggerated and positioned to drive fear.

    I’ve been to a couple dozen countries at this point, primarily but not exclusively in low and medium low income countries.

    Based on my experience (which is, in sum total, still pretty limited), organized crime groups will often try to avoid stirring up trouble with tourists and expats as incidents can generate too much heat and could hurt too many wallets.

    I also got the impression that organized crime groups in most countries typically try to avoid stirring up too much stuff with locals as that too can draw heat. This is assuming that the locals likewise try to avoid stirring things up with organized crime members.

    People living in Mexico may in many cases may be more exposed. Then you’ve got failed and near failed states like the DRC where things are really, really dire.

    There often are areas that are best to avoid and if you do go there, you’ll want to keep a low profile. This is true in the USA, parts of Europe, and many low and medium low income countries. I’ve ended up in some pretty shady areas through life but never had anything happen. That said, the risks are heightened.

    There are also safe low and middle income countries that are, at least with violent crime, much safer than the USA and other high income countries. Examples: Malaysia (upper middle income), Vietnam, Costa Rica.




  • From CNN:

    " The move to detain the mayor of Turkey’s largest city, a key political battleground, comes after Istanbul University said on Tuesday it had annulled Imamoglu’s degree over irregularities, dealing a blow to the opposition and dashing the mayor’s presidential ambitions.

    Without a university degree, Imamoglu of the main opposition CHP, would be disqualified from running for president.

    Imamoglu said the university’s decision was illegal and outside its jurisdiction, and that he would launch a legal challenge “The decision of the Istanbul University Board of Directors is UNLAWFUL” he said. “The days when those who made this decision will be held accountable before history and justice are near.”

    ---- Yeah Erdogan isn’t even pretending any more. Clearly just a move to take out the opposition.





  • “They are the people with influence in the governments committing genocides.”

    And the civilians who are actually targeted are not the ones who can influence governments.

    And the attacks on the boats are not going to cause much damage to the billionaires. If the attacks reach the point that the billionaires are going to be hurt, the USA military will step in.

    The people actually shouldering must of the impact are innocent civilians, primarily from developing countries, who actually main the boats.

    We are the heroes of our own stories but, and I am sorry if this is rude, it’s straight up gross that you’re here trying to justify attacking neutral, innocent, largely unarmed, and financially constrained civilians.

    I really hope you can arrive at the point where you can look back on this and realize how messed up this position is.


  • Yeah, and it’s a shame that people, especially from developing countries, are forced into these situations due to economic realities.

    Stop mentioning the billionaires. They are not important in this conversation. They are not on the the ships, and the only impact these events have on them is pushing up insurance prices and other costs but even that is a drop in the bucket.

    And stop acting like you’re some sort of hero. Given your position, I highly doubt you actually care any more about these workers then then billionaires. Both you and them seem to be looking at 'em as disposable.