Trump may be unable to end the war he started with Iran, even if he wanted to | CNN
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A war that is “won” but also “not finished yet.” An “excursion” that requires Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” President Donald Trump’s rhetorical knots fit well with his style of dictating America’s information diet, but fall flat when they hit the gritty reality of conflict.

Trump is now caught in the oldest trap of modern warfare – believing a swift, surgical military operation will yield quick, enduring political results. The Soviets did it in Afghanistan; the US in Iraq in 2003; Putin did it in Ukraine, and is still fighting. Whatever force a military fails or succeeds in applying at the start, the people it is attacking have greater commitment to defending their lands and homes.

The White House may have rushed into this, seizing the opportunity for a decapitation strike, provided by Israeli intelligence. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has very different objectives regionally, and a long US involvement against Tehran suits his desire for an Iran in rolling collapse that is no longer a threat. But the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28 has caused as many problems as it has solved.

  • mirshafieEnglish
    16·
    23 hours ago

    Honestly I believe Iran would accept:

    • Full sanctions relief
    • Return to IAEA inspections
    • Pinky-promise not to attack again
    • Fake reparations program spread out over 30 years

    The alternative is:

    • The US is evicted from the Persian Gulf
    • The US fucks off from Iraq, and Iraq gets an Iran-friendly government
    • Bahrain gets regime change
    • All goods through the strait are now controlled by Iran

    The worse/better alternative is:

    • Pipelines and refineries in the Arabian nations go boom
    • All US/Israel trade through the Red Sea is blocked
    • US is starved out of Djibouti
    • Iran gets a nuclear weapon and says they’re going to “test it” on Tel Aviv unless Netanyahu sucks a donkey dick on OnlyFans

    Choose wisely, pedophile scum

    • Skyrmir@lemmy.worldEnglish
      6·
      17 hours ago

      There’s a lot darker option. US and Israel tag team the populace in a genocide, shut down Iranian oil production while protecting the rest of OPEC. Leading to massive profits for Russia, some profits for US oil companies, and massive bankruptcy in Europe while crippling their manufacturing base. Which leaves the US, Russia, and China with functioning autocratic economies that can carve up the rest of the world. And the other nuclear powers are left to dismantle their own military to feed their people.

      • mirshafieEnglish
        3·
        8 hours ago

        That Europe is the big loser here is a given. Which is why Europe really should get involved, today. But I don’t think that the US is able to protect the rest of OPEC, at least not short-term. They are incredibly fragile and their infrastructure is exposed.

        I think that the point for the US is to disrupt China. So that’s the point, mess up the Middle East so that China has no reliable source of oil. Next, make a move on Taiwan. I think that China understands this and will get involved.

        • Skyrmir@lemmy.worldEnglish
          3·
          7 hours ago

          China already saw this coming, that’s why they pushed so hard on solar and battery tech. Last year they dropped in 250GW of solar, and they’ll probably do more this year. It’s not there yet, but they’re not as worried about this as you might think. It’s a problem, but not a crippling emergency.

          Europe on the other hand doesn’t have good options. Regardless of what they could do, what they don’t have now is the infrastructure to do it. And their biggest problem to clear out the Strait isn’t Iran, it’s Trump. European prosecutors are taking banking records from European banks about the Epstein files. While they can’t prosecute Trump directly in any way, they can hand over anything they want to congress, or the public. In short, they are a threat to Trump, and he knows it, and he will attack anyone who threatens him, or Putin.