I mean, due to the war with Iran: will these currencies (mentioned below) lose value because the strait of Hormuz is under threat despite that route being vital for the transportation of crude oil worldwide?
I’m mainly talking about:
- UAE Dirham
- Kuwaiti Dinar
- Bahraini Dinar
- Qatari Riyal
- Saudi Riyal
- Omani Rial
The thing is that, these currencies are known for being stable due to the demand for crude oil (which ensures demand for their currency), strict monetary polcies from central banks & pegged to the USD.
To put into perspective: the Ukrainian Hryvnia has been devalued by 25% following Russia’s invasion deeming it a weaker currency than it used to be. The thing is with let’s say the Omani Rial, it’s pegged to the USD (same with both QAR & AED) while KWD is pegged to an undisclosed currency basket. Oil is the key player as to why GCC currencies are strong.
With the strait of Hormuz under threat as Iran is attempting to obstruct vessels transporting crude oil, would that mean let’s say the Qatari Riyal will lose value? For instance: the Kuwaiti Dinar is a strong currency but with recent events (like fighter jet being shot down by an Iranian drone or Iran themselves attacking US bases situated in Kuwait) will that status change?
Probably a little, at least while their oil exports are actively being hindered.
When a country’s access to the international market is hindered, or manufacturing for international markets is itself hindered, currency backed by said products tend to suffer.
Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava!
Uncertainty (which the war causes in the region) will cause a downward pressure on their currencies along with less oil exports as you say. But there are a lot of factors that go into the value of a currency. Their central banks could increase the interest rates for example.
