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In the latest move, Russian lawmakers introduced a bill on July 22 to allow continuous, year-round conscription on July 22.
“If this law is passed, it can be considered a stealth mobilization,” Ukrainian defense expert, Denys Popovych, told the Kyiv Independent.
“There is a 99% chance that this law will be passed, because it was submitted by (Andriy) Kartopolov, who is (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s man, his mouthpiece. What he submits will largely be approved, and is agreed with Putin,” he added.
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These changes in mobilization laws are … being accompanied by dramatic defense spending plans.
According to Ukraine’s intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, Moscow plans to spend $1.1 trillion on rearmament by 2036, an unprecedented investment since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“There is a total mobilization of politics, economy, and society of the Russian Federation to be ready for the upcoming large-scale war,” Budanov said.
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Another factor in Russia’s desire to increase mobilization is simply that it might not be able to afford to pay the huge sums necessary to sign contracts for much longer.
“Russia’s budget is currently bursting at the seams,” Popovych said. “Many industries and transport sectors have collapsed due to sanctions. Therefore, they will obviously not have enough money to recruit people for the war, as they are doing now.”
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[Edit to insert the correct link.]
Putin must know something that our propaganda ain’t telling us or he is no longer in the loop.
Hard to tell, but we can see Russian performance in ukraine and it is hard to understand how they are planning to add poland and Baltic into the mix. Short of china deploying
Putin must know something that our propaganda ain’t telling us
This is a pretty bizarre take lol
That’s called a hypothesis…
Putin is in a similar position as Netanyahu, it’s not about winning but continuing to play (read: kill people).
I’m not an analyst, but they’re badly short of people in Ukraine, and a pretty big chunk of their economy is already focused on the war at this point. Why would any of this be other than just trying to secure what they need for fighting in Ukraine? Why would it mean a new war?
NATO will be distracted when China invades Taiwan.
If China really wanted to invade Taiwan, they’d have done a Ukraine to it a while ago. Nobody did shit about Crimea, and outside of the US, nobody would do shit about Taiwan. The US is pretty much the only wildcard in terms of how the world would react, and with Trump in charge, they have an actual opportunity, and they don’t seem to have any kind of inclination to act on it that I have seen.
They want to inch their way out, a little at a time, gradually expanding the sphere of influence in ways that aren’t going to risk upsetting the absolute Niagara Falls of money that’s coming in from all their mutually beneficial trade with all the rest of the world. They also want to make big noises for domestic consumption about how they’re a big scary regional power and everyone better stay the fuck out of their way, and they’re probably going to take Taiwan next month if they decide so watch out… but really bombing Taiwan for real is not in the style of the current Chinese government. Why would they need that? Things are working. Why risk fucking it up?
(Predicting the future is foolish of course but that is my prediction / understanding of it.)
They’ve been drilling against full-scale US carrier models in the Gobi desert and practicing landing huge amounts of equipment by sea.
They’re almost ready.
What could possibly be the point of preparing for a non-nuclear war that includes close up fighting against US aircraft carriers?
It’s good to keep your military prepared for all kinds of shit that might potentially go down, I can understand doing drills and being familiar with the enemy’s kit. It seems fine. But the smart play in terms of Taiwan is that Trump will not do anything because he is Trump and he doesn’t care all that much about Taiwan anyway. The play where they decide to start World War 3 and then win it, because they drilled against the aircraft carriers, and thus they were able to secure this one particular smallish island as “officially part of China” instead of “only unofficially part of China, and only to a 30% extent”, seems… farfetched. That’s kind of what I’m saying about the difference between saber rattling for domestic consumption vs. what they actually plan to do.
Look at these watercraft and tell me they’re just drilling: https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-barges-flood-taiwan-beaches-tanks
Xi must realize he screwed the pooch on peaceful reunification — Taiwan saw what happened to Hong Kong and did a quick 180. Xi also wants to write himself into the history books and conquering Taiwan would qualify. China has a rapidly-approaching demographic crisis (not from my point of view, but from that of someone planning an invasion) which means the window is closing.
When the US is well and truly in crisis, the EU (rump NATO) is balls-deep in a Russian invasion, who will stop Xi? Trump could easily sell out Taiwan for, I don’t know, a gift 747. Or something similar.
China has also drastically increased incursions into Taiwan’s territory to wear down their preparedness and conducted live fire drills inside Australia’s territorial waters just to put them on notice.
I’ll be surprised if China doesn’t attack before 2030.
Could be. They’ve definitely been building a bunch of what looks like invasion landing-craft, yes.
