“Donald Trump is the first US President since World War Two to challenge the role that his country set for itself many decades ago. And he is doing this in such a way that, to many, the old world order appears to be over - and the new world order has yet to take shape.
The question is, which nations will step forward? And, with the security of Europe under greater strain than at any time almost in living memory, can its leaders, who are currently scrabbling around, find an adequate response?”
Trump may have shot the US in the foot on that one: I have a feeling Europe will finally do what they should have done decades ago - i.e. ween itself off the US’ protection, and also off US tech, with France taking the lead on the military effort at least - and this may hasten the US’ slide into irrelevance.
Hopefully. If most European countries haven’t themselves succumbed to elected Putin-funded fascist regimes before that happens.
I think, long term, we’re going to see leadership coming from France (naval, air), Poland (ground), Sweden (also naval and air), and the Baltic states (intelligence/cyberwarfare). I hope Germany ends up contributing meaningfully, but I’m honestly not sure they’ll get out of the way of their own bureaucracy. I know they are doing a huge defense spending increase, but I also recall the last time they did that in 2022 and how it somewhat flamed out as a result of said bureaucracy (not to mention the fact that they refused to lift a finger until the US started doing something first).
Germany is one of the greatest liabilities to the EU right now. The dawning government coalition is set to massively increase authoritarian surveillance, pander to far right and fascist extremists, block energy and transport transition and the establishment of a modern industrial base. Meanwhile Germany dismantles the somewhat rules based order it used to help build by its unhinged support for Israel, while Israel and Russia are pocketing the European far right. Finally by deliberately ignoring social issues the current and upcoming German government are actively working to make the fascist AfD the strongest party in the next election and the CDU/CSU have fostered ties to Trump, actively seeking advice on how to maximize far right/fascist populism.