• 4 Posts
  • 138 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: July 1st, 2023

help-circle

  • I’ve listened to a couple interviews with the author about this book, and I have not found them persuasive. I can accept that there’s a possibility that artificial super intelligence (ASI) could occur soonish, and is likely to occur eventually. I can accept that such an ASI could choose to do something that kills everyone, and that it would be extremely difficult to stop it.

    The two other arguments necessary for the title claim, I see no reason to accept. First that any ASI must necessarily choose to kill everyone. The paper clip scenario is the basic shape of the arguments presented. I think it’s probably impossible to predict what an ASI would want, and very unlikely that it would be so simple minded as to convert the solar system into paper clips. It’s a weird proposal that an ASI must be both incomprehensibly capable and simultaneously brainless.

    Second that the alignment problem can not be solved before the super intelligence problem with current trajectories. Again, this may be true, but I do not think it’s a given that the current AI techniques are sufficient for human-level, let alone super-human intelligence.

    Overall, the problem is that the author argues that the risk is a certainty. I don’t know what the real risk is, but I do not believe it is 100%. Perhaps it’s a rhetorical concession, an overstatement to scare people into accepting his proposals. Whatever the reason, I’m sympathetic to the actual proposals; that we need better monitoring and safety controls on AI research and hardware, including a moratorium if necessary. The risk isn’t 100% but it’s not 0% either.







  • They do, but I’m a little surprised by how well they’ve positioned themselves on this one. It seems to me that the most likely scenario is that the Republicans will give nothing on principal, the shutdown will go until November when the premiums increase, and the country will see that the Republicans would rather close the government for two months than spare them a doubling or tripling of their healthcare costs.

    And all the while Trump trashes the government in an attempt to retaliate, without really understanding that the government provides services that people, his voters included, depend on. I’m not sure, “the Democrats made me do it,” will save him with anyone other than his cult members.

    I am cautiously optimistic.







  • Recognizing that the physical can affect the mental, and vice versa, isn’t really the end of the dualism argument. Dualists have incorporated that simple observation from the beginning.

    From your quote, the key word is “purely.” Is consciousness purely physical, or is some other substance involved, that’s the question.

    You can take either side of the argument, but physical-mental interactions only suggest that mental phenomena are not purely separate. It does not indicate that there are no non-physical elements of consciousness. In other words, that mental states are purely physical.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind–body_dualism

    If you want to read through some of the arguments for and against.






  • I’m not really qualified to evaluate the merits here, but as a science-interested layman, I’d be glad to see an alternative to dark matter and energy. Setting aside the technical arguments, the dark matter and energy approach smells like questioning the observations when your theory doesn’t match observations.

    I skimmed the paper for testable predictions, and nothing stood out to me. Fitting existing observations is a good place to start, but if the only prediction is that nobody will find dark matter or energy, things may remain undecided forever.




  • A counterpoint would be to ask which platforms digg and reddit began as clones of. Seems they were pretty unique and yet exploded almost from the beginning. Snapchat? Vine? They were both pretty unique.

    To OPs point, basically all of the fediverse apps are clones, which aside from the federation element, don’t add anything to the formula they are cloning. Even if you prefer the incremental strategy, where things are basically the same with a few new features, it would be hard to argue the fediverse apps even meet that bar. To the average user, federation is a technical issue they’d rather not be bothered with.

    So I’m inclined to agree that this first wave of open source, federated social platforms have ended up, in terms of social features, pretty uninnovative. But before I sound too critical, I appreciate the work these app builders have put in, and clearly use the apps myself.

    It may be a question of project scope. If what you aim to do is liberate yourself and your fellow nerds from corporate platforms, the clones suffice. If, perhaps, your aim is to liberate everyone, you’ll need innovation in both the backend, and the social features to draw in everyone else.

    Caveat - I’ve only really used Mastodon and Lemmy. Perhaps others are different.