Amazing answer! I’d add that in my experience the best antidote for depression is getting out there and organizing. You’ll feel a lot better when you see how well our message can resonate when you do it with people who make a habit of putting theory into practice, it’s also a great way to make IRL friends. There are active ML parties all over the world!

Thank you for taking the time to patiently explain so much of this to me. I’ve got a lot to read and think about!

That’s useful and when you take those data points maybe there’s something more fundamental I’m missing based on the way I’m looking at the issue. I come at these issues with a western economics lens and it’s easy to imagine I’m missing something about the way they structure their economy and handle income redistribution more broadly.

It sounds like what we’ve seen is a massive PPP improvement across the board, and specifically for the bottom 20%. That’s obviously a good sign that they’re moving more towards the “olive shaped” income distribution they’re targeting.

Do you know a good source for details about the way China handles the federal vs provincial vs local funding issues? I’m having trouble trying to find good english language sources and I’d like to learn more about how they handle taxes and grants and what that looks like mechanically.

So I was digging into this a bit last night and would love the perspective of some folks that know more about China.

One really interesting thing I read was that China’s Gini coefficient was like 0.465 in 2024 which is relatively high. It looks like from a redistributive perspective China is doing less than the most European welfare states. By that I mean it is less effective at redistributing income, not necessarily at providing public services.

The other related element was that apparently a significant portion of local government tax revenue was related to property taxes and that there is still a fairly low capital gains tax. The article I was looking at suggested that that was a big part of the urban/rural wealth gap. Basically that without national level taxes it’s hard for local governments to address the broader issues of inequality.

I hope that makes sense and that someone here can help me better understand how the Chinese look at this issue. I’m particularly curious about the capital gains and national level taxation issues as it looks a lot like elite capture when viewing it with limited context and expertise.

JPMC is pretty sure that the US needs a “solution” that “reopens” Hormuz by early June. That cuts both ways, more pressure to find a military solution and greater risk of any miscalculation or failure. The safest play is to keep the blockade on the blockade going and say that Iran is being crippled.

It looks like there’s very little room for a negotiated solution but a long slow drawdown that ends somewhere both sides can accept without ever declaring an agreement doesn’t seem insane to me. It’s face saving for the US and Iran collecting tolls and controlling Hormuz is pretty good for them.

Thanks Rylo, that was exactly what I was looking for!

Is there any reason to think this is actually directed towards Iran and not entirely just to suppress battle damage images in the media?

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the international community to assume its legal and humanitarian responsibilities

Feels like the thoughts and prayers of international relations.

The other obvious reason to purge your officer core is you think you might need officers who’s loyalty is guaranteed if you intend to do something about an upcoming election you’re confident will go badly for you.

I’d be pretty surprised by that. Soldiers are chatty and have access to some social media. Casualty communications blackouts aren’t perfect and eventually things start to leak, especially once details make it into the family readiness groups back home. Not saying it’s impossible but the odds of something like that working for more than a couple days would be pretty small.

I’m not an expert but I’m familiar with that particular mechanism.

Has anyone seen any evidence of talks between Iran and the US, or even some serious third party discussions?

Has anyone seen any independent corroboration for this? I’ve been looking and having seen anything.

Thought this was an interesting piece of analysis from the folks over at Oilprice.com, an industry publication focused on investors and oil execs. TLDR is they are suggesting 200$ per barrel oil is realistic based on the damage being done to energy infrastructure and Iran’s ability to restrict oil traffic.

Note embedded link is to the archive.is version.

I think this is a critically important point. The contradictions of capitalism are becoming clearer and more and more folks will awaken to them as the situation deteriorates. It’s important that we do our best to prepare the ground now. If things go the way they seem to be going this will be a fantastic opportunity to disrupt and oppose the forces of global capitalism.

You had me in the first half, I’m not gonna lie 😂