This isn’t about collapse in US politics, this is about us all being on the precipice of a much more general, brutal and longlasting global war.
Large global wars breakout, they are not carefully managed fires or designed plans, they are bonfires that grow so big the heat reaches everywhere inside the area that can burn…
Also, Trump does not always coward/chicken out, or rather he always cowards out/chickens out from avoiding destructive escalation by swallowing his ego…which is actually really dangerous for everybody.
The threat of nuclear weapons use here is not abstract, there is no evidence we should act like it is no matter what Trump/Vance says.
is our commitment to the rule of law in the room with us now?
They’re all detached from reality
A spirit has appeared!
Oh wait nope that is still a senator my bad.
Who put that turtle in a suit?
It’s going to be a bloodbath that will throw most Americans into third world poverty.
longlasting global war.
It won’t be global unless Israel/US bombs Europe, and it won’t be long lasting unless Europe collectively refuses to sanction the US. The US does not have the capability, militarily, economically, or the industry to invade Iran.
This isn’t Iraq, this isn’t Afghanistan, this is the single most naturally defended country that currently exists; and it won’t run out of supplies given it can and will always sell oil to China in exchange for Yuan to be spent on parts.
It won’t be global unless Israel/US bombs Europe
Incorrect, if Israel/US pre-emptive strike Iran with a nuclear weapon as a “”“last desperate measure”“” then russia will immediately follow suit and use nuclear weapons on Ukraine. This may or may not remain limited nuclear escalation, but even if it doesn’t there is the grim natural facilitation of Putin’s power AND the US/Israel’s power if this tit for tat is allowed to happen.
None of this has to make sense logically for it to happen, Stephen Miller is the kind of rightwing scary you wouldn’t leave alone with your kids…
The US will not invade Iran in any general or broad sense, what Trump/Vance/Israel/Putin want to do is reach for the easy “game over” button to these conflicts/shows of power/“mowing the grass” episodes.
The US can continue to destroy a reasonable future for Iranians though, will it accomplish anything? Yes, the US needs a villain and if you subject people to enough undeserved trauma people are likely to eventually turn into what you perceive as villains, which is the clear point of the Iran War -> to ensure Iran doesn’t threaten to try to integrate to the greater region and world in a peaceful manner and that it succombs to a militant obsession with fighting Israel/US instead. I.E. “mow the grass”
The only way to interpret the actions of the US and especially Trump/Vance here is to conclude they are desperately trying to craft an Iran government and culture through acts of mass terrorism against the Iranian civilians that can put on the clown suit somewhat for US/Israel bigoted world views of who Iran is and why they justify all of these sacrifices we “have” to make to our futures at home.
Nukes are off the table, there is no world in which we will see another nuclear weapon used in war, if there are even any still viable nuclear weapons left. (Nukes degrade and cannot be effectively maintained, they have to be replaced entirely after a certain point, and officially we’re past the point for most nuclear arms produced for them to be viable.)
But not only that, but no country on Earth would allow Israel or the US to live if they nuked Iran. Their propaganda has objectively failed. Over half of people (pretty much every single human under 40) in western nations do not support Israel in the Israel v Iran conflict. When you poll other countries, it drops to under 10% supporting Israel, with most countries not peaking past 1% support for Israel versus Iran.
China has the capability to unilaterally end the US economy entirely. They haven’t because they have repeatedly stated they do not want to engage in economic warfare. If the US nukes Iran, the US economy ends. It won’t recover. We do not have the raw materials or talent for it to recover. We have no other manufacturing base which can replace our current dependence on China. Add in the rest of BRICS, the fact Mexico is currently learning more towards BRICS than USMCA, Add in the fact no European government besides the UK supports Israel, add in the fact Canada is much more willing to work with China than the US right now, and there isn’t a future for the US or Israel.
The US has lost the Iran war, past tense. The US Navy lost its first naval war. The US has proven to be an actual paper tiger, and without the US defending it, Israel cannot defend itself. Saudi Arabia is finding this out currently, as they are losing their genocidal war in Yemen against the rightful government of Yemen. The US promised to protect them too, and they can’t. The US doesn’t have the munitions to wage war, much less aid others wars.
I agree with you that nuclear is the last option they have left, it is the only way they can continue the war in any way that isn’t a direct surrender, but I do not believe the people actually capable of launching a nuclear attack want to die and see their loved ones die for Israel. They will, explicitly, refuse to follow orders, regardless of how insane the people at the top are.
We currently have US military members refusing to follow Trump’s orders. Why do you think Trump ordering them to kill themselves would be followed?
Nukes are off the table
NO they are not
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If Israel/US nukes Iran and nobody else acts China will punish Israel/US
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If russia nukes Ukraine and nobody else reacts China will punish russia
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HOWEVER if Israel/US nuke Iran while russia near simultaneously nukes Ukraine than China may push for ending hostilities after a cycle of “tit for tat” has happened that no one wants to continue and effectively neither empire will be punished but rather empowered and reaffirmed in their strength.
I am not saying it is highly likely, but if you don’t see the danger here I don’t know what to tell you. Nuclear escalation is horrific and it disgusts me we are walking so closely to cliff edges.
China would punish both, since neither country could ever be trusted economically ever again, and China would like to continue trading with the rest of the world which would be objectively impossible. Nuclear first strikes are war crimes, and ones that pretty much mean instant global sanctions.
Now would be the time to test that, given the EU switching over to their own payment processor and China giving the other 2/3rds of the world a payment processor that’s not Visa/Mastercard.
Everything is set up in such a way that both Russia and the US can be effectively removed from global society with the only danger being them nuking a nuclear power; which even the most insane sycophants wouldn’t do, since that ends the world. If Israel/US nukes Iran, the US will never trade again with any country or entity, the USD collapses literally instantly as the US has no assets backing up its fiat currency BESIDES their economic and military stability, and a whole lot of US military members will mutiny if not actively revolt.
The same is true of Russia, but to a lesser extent since they’ve effectively been in isolationist manufacturing mode since 1991 so they’re far less reliant on global trade, still a lot of Russian billionaires would revolt.
Every single key to power in both countries is against nuclear escalations, since that ends their power globally. Rubles and USD would be worthless, their assets would be worthless, their foreign assets would be seized, and that’s if they survive popular riots/revolutions long enough to flee.
There is no threat to justify nuclear force, for either country. There is no possible way to get a plurality, much less a majority, of people to defend the actions. And again it would make all the people involved poor.
You need to understand that trying to ascribe a rational mindset to orangeboi is an exercise in willful ignorance, which is a big part of why the sanewashing the mainstream media engages in with orangeboi in particular and the regime in general drives me to the brink of insanity
The problem with that is Trump isn’t the end of all decisions. Even in the quasi-fascist regime he has built. He has no big red button that says ‘nuke iran.’ He has a guy with briefcase that generates codes. He then calls and orders a person, using that code, to nuke iran. Who has to relay that order (and whatever secret steps involved) to someone else, who has to nuke Iran. And that’s the easy one, assuming they use an ICBM. If they go ship based or aircraft-based nuke there are DOZENS of people required to all agree, without reservation, to nuke Iran. That that’s clearly the best option. That that is a legal order they are willing to bet the rest of their life and career on. Because if they carry out an illegal order, they are personally liable.
Nuking Iran, under all current laws, is illegal. Even if the president directly orders it. Any and all military personnel involved, at least 6, up to DOZENS, would all have to actively follow an illegal order, betting that by following the order TRUMP ET AL WILL NEVER LOSE POWER FOR THE REST OF TIME.
Do you know the type of person that gets to the point of commanding a nuclear submarine? A flight deck commander that relays the order? The general that directs the silo?
They don’t answer to presidents. They don’t answer to the secretary of defense. They managed to avoid all legal pitfalls while building a career that sets them and their spouse up for life, and they generally tend to only be loyal to the constitution; because they would have been filtered long ago if they were loyal to a party or person.
It takes just one person refusing an illegal order to stop the nuke. Just one. The US military was explicitly designed that way, and its why the government spends so much money using propaganda on our own troops.
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