It’s been reported that in the German elections, a far right party has made ‘significant gains’.
In the UK (at least before the scandals) Reform UK seems to have had a significant boost and has even surpassed the right-wing Conservative Party in some polls/predictions.
Even France, one or two years ago, was threatened with a far-right government due to the French far right party gaining a lot of support.
It feels like in the last few years, the far-right has exceeded itself and had a surge in popularity. Is this the case? And if so, wtf is fuelling it?
The west has been in the imperialist stage of capitalism for a bit more than a century. As was described back then, this is a parasitic, moribund stage of capitalism. It’s parasitic in an obvious way, but what’s most interesting is the moribund factor. Imperialism essentially becomes the dominant factor in a capitalist economy once it fully saturates the national economy, when monopoly bank and industrial capital begin consolidating into finance capital, and when these groups must expand outward, not just can.
The reason this is moribund is because it hollows out industrialization, seeking cheaper labor in the global south. It also seeks more specualtive than real returns, and sharpens the divide between rich and poor on an international scale, even if temporarily it reduces inequality in the national level (see FDR’s New Deal, before imperialism began decaying and Reaganomics forced austerity to preserve superprofits). What’s happening now is a sharp rightward turn in response to this system breaking down as the global south develops and gains independence from neocolonialism, giving them agency in how the world is run and tools at their disposal not purely linked to the west.
It’s the protracted death of imperialism that is forcing many people into austerity in the west, which drives reaction. Everyone trying to blame it on foreigners and propaganda are missing the point, the actual material system the west runs on is dying away as has already been predicted before by analyzing the very mechanisms of capitalism.
This is well written, but sadly for us, capitalism has proven to be more adaptable than Lenin predicted, having declared it as moribund over a century ago.
The manner in which imperialism is moribund is exactly as Lenin described. Lenin never gave a timeframe, because there was no way he could have predicted exactly. However, the process of capitalism needing to expand or die on a limited world is still progressing the way he predicted.
You are absolutely right about the ‘expand or die’ mechanics on a finite planet. However, it’s not entirely accurate that Lenin didn’t have a timeframe in mind. He subtitled his pamphlet ‘the eve of the social revolution’ because he genuinely believed the carnage of World War I was the terminal crisis. He didn’t foresee capitalism’s ability to mutate, adopt Keynesian reforms, and stabilise post-WWII. His mechanical diagnosis of finance capital was incredibly prescient, but he underestimated capitalism’s elasticity unfortunately 🥲
Lenin may have strongly thought that socialist revolution was more immediate worldwide, but he did not believe this to be certain, nor did his analysis require it to be so. Imperialism evolved to the present era of neoimperialism and unipolarity, but this doubled-down on the international stakes. With the clear era of decline we are in, it’s difficult to read Lenin and believe him wrong when what he predicted has come to pass, just not as quickly as he may have hoped it would.
It sounds like we are entirely on the same page. The timeline shifted and the system proved highly elastic by evolving into neocolonialism, but the fundamental mechanics of extraction remained the same. The real question now is whether the current rise of multipolarity is finally the breaking point of that system, or if capital will find yet another way to mutate.
Sure, the death of imperialism is a protracted process. What’s undeniable at this point is that it is dying, as it exists in a manner that cannot help but die in the long run.
Well said. The maths of infinite extraction on a finite planet always had an expiration date, even if the timeline is protracted. It’s going to be incredibly fascinating and probably pretty turbulent to watch how the rest of this century plays out as that reality fully sets in. Really enjoyed this discussion.
Thanks! And yes, I expect the present conditions of China and the rest of the global south rising to continue to spark desparation from the US as it decays, which I can only hope sees revolution before the world sees war.