How many people, if they were given $1.3 million just once in their lifetime, would figure out far better uses for that money than this guy?

this is likely tomorrow’s Pivot

This looks worse than I expected and I am a certified shittalker, that’s crazy

I’m not going to start a punch-up with a dev team or maintainer who believes that AI tools can help good programmers do good work or whatever, but time and again we see that, just like crypto before it, you aren’t inviting good programmers to work with you. You’re inviting the bros. AI bros and crypto bros are a specific type of Guy. I’m sure there were dotcom bros in the 90s. This is not a new problem, even if the current economic circumstances makes being this type of Guy more viable than ever, apparently.

It’s not just that the tech is bad (though it is bad), it’s that it’s uniquely privileged by culture and economics to empower the worst assortment of morons and grifters outside of Wall Street (and also inside of Wall Street, because of fucking course it does).

Upvoted but disliked

I particularly appreciate the argument he makes about the tech industry pivoting from creating value to exercising control. I disagree that this trend is specific to the tech industry, but with the possible exception of Monsanto they have been the most successful at it.

With the obvious failings of the American state to perform it’s basic duties and the cross-pollination of the American political and corporate elites it seems plausible that at least some factions in the tech industry are awaiting an opportunity to take advantage of this weakness they’ve created and exercise that control over the functions of the state directly. I feel like I should be saying this into a webcam from behind a cartoonishly-large desk in between shilling for nutritional supplements, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t fear what rough beast, it’s hour come at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born.

A prominent cloud engineer had a sizeable subthread where they were skeptical about the entire idea of Quality as something that humans can discern and rank. Through what I presume was a nat 20, I threw a philosophy book at them and they appear to have responded by deleting the worst of their comments, particularly the ones where he admits to quoting chatbots, and deactivating their account. This may be the first time that quoting Pirsig has won an argument, TBH.

This was after a week’s vacation caused by a thread that is still too hot to deeplink, where I had multiple comments removed by mods and still won the argument. I am currently once again the second-most-flagged user with like 25 flags in the last month. “The things I do for love.”

OK here’s a followup, which I’m putting out here as there’s probably a higher proportion of neurodivergent people here than in other fora I frequent

A commenter on lobste.rs states that being anti-LLM is effectively being against neurodivergent individuals, because many such individuals express themselves in prose in a way that’s indistinguishable from LLM output.

Is this a widespread viewpoint?

https://lobste.rs/s/wee21u/this_is_written_by_llm_comments_should_be#c_nadrad

The idea of “the exponential curve goes up forever” has always been silly and an idea rooted in capitalism for me (“no bro you don’t get it we’re gonna get infinite money forever”). Limited resources exist, and people are already very fed up with the ludicrous amounts of water and electricity data centres take up. Making bigger models that need to run for longer is also probably going to take an exponential amount of resources (and also make people hate you more).

he just posted an entirely unnecessary amount of words

taking a quick look at it… it’s actually short by Scott’s standards, but still overly long, given that the only point he makes is claiming Lindy’s Law is applicable to predicting AI progress in absence of other information. Edit: glancing at it again… its not that short, I kinda skimmed until I got to Scott’s actual point my first time glancing at it. You can’t blame me for not reading it.

you-can’t-really-knows

Yeah, he straw-mans AI critics/skeptics as trying to make an argument from ignorance, then tries to argue against that strawman using Lindy’s Law (which assumes ignorance and a pareto distribution). He completely ignores that AI critics are actually making detailed arguments about LLM companies consuming all the good and novel training data, hitting the limits on what compute costs they can afford, running into problems of the long lead time for building datacenters, etc. Which is pretty ironic given his AI 2027 makes a nominal claim to accounting for all that stuff (in actuality it basically all rests on METR’s task horizons, and distorts even that already questionable dataset).

im smarter than everyone else around me, especially those whiny feminists. why hasn’t society granted me a female to be my mate yet?

An lesswrong will literally do… whatever this is instead of going to therapy.

He probably paid a rationalist dating coach good money to tell him to do that.

least egotistical lesswronger

Fran has done some really great writing on this, really admire her ability to deconstruct a community she’s fond of.

they want your data and freshwater

it’s not approval they’re after, it’s reaffirmation of faith

The plagiarism, massive expenditure of venture capital, and unreliable slop output are all intrinsic to the technology, and they hate to be reminded of that because there isn’t much they can do about it. From a technological standpoint, even locally run community fine-tuned open-weight models still originated from plagiarism and big corporate investments, and still output slop. From a social standpoint, the most the can do is try to claim legitimacy through consensus building and we are a threat to that.

Are prediction markets not actually useful? No, it is the reality who is wrong.

Also I want to rant once again about the stupid way these people evade the insider trading problem, because there’s a particular failure at play that I keep finding expressed in new and interesting ways.

So the argument goes that while insider trading may be bad for a financial market it actually just allows insiders to add their information to increase the predictive power of the market. Which would be true enough if we assume nothing else changes, but the same would also be true for price discovery in a normal asset market. Clearly we’re missing something.

So why is it insider trading bad? Because it turns people without insider info into the dumb money you can take advantage of. And people, very reasonably, aren’t going to participate in a system where their main role is being taken advantage of. Their departure means that the insiders don’t have access to a pool of dumb money to take so they stop interacting with the system, and the market itself breaks down.

Now if you assume that the majority of people are “NPCs” or aren’t very “agentic” or whatever then they’re not going to act in systemically meaningful ways no matter how obvious the incentives to do so. You could also cast it as a version of the libertarian-as-housecat notion that markets simply exist as a natural system, rather than being pieces of economic infrastructure that require a lot of management and work to keep functioning at all, even before we get to the question of whether they operate to the public’s benefit. So many of the problems with these ideologies spring from this belief that only some people actually matter in a systemic sense by dictating rules and Building Things and being big men, rather than systems being constantly created and shaped by all the people who interact with them through those interactions.

Turns out sneerclub is the superpredictor. 10/10 on going ‘this is a bad idea’.

Even Scott’s fantasy dream scenario for what prediction markets could be like and what questions they could answer feels… …deliberately naive? …like libertarian brainrot? …disconnected from reality?

Ask yourself: what are the big future-prediction questions that important disagreements pivot around? When I try this exercise, I get things like:

Will the AI bubble pop? Will scaling get us all the way to AGI? Will AI be misaligned?

Huge amounts of money are being dumped into a bubble based on hype, so to hope a predict market would or could make better predictions than the existing business-idiot VCs funding this bubble feels hopelessly naive in a libertarian kind of way. There is already a method of aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and it is failing to incredibly lazy hype and PR.

Will Trump turn America into a dictatorship? Make it great again? Somewhere in between?

Again, there is already a mechanism for aggregating wisdom of the crowds, its called an election, and its also failed to get a answer predicated on reality or truth, so again, it seems incredibly naive to expect prediction markets to do better!

Will YIMBY policies lower rents? How much?

I mean, the councils and communities making these decision already ignore or overlook longer-term broader predictions of economic impact in favor of immediate home-owner value, I don’t see why Scott would expect prediction markets to help decision making go better here.

Overall, it feels like Scott is overlooking the way decision making often already ignores science and experts. Society doesn’t have a problem making decent predictions compared to the problems it has communicating expert opinions to the public effectively and crafting policy aligned with the public interest.

He was also perplexed that a prediction-market bet on “did COVID-19 come from a lab?” has declined from 85% yes in 2023 to 27% yes. If you click through you see its a bet on Manifold so bettors are rats and fellow travellers. Rationalists have spent $46,714 of real US dollars buying play money to bet on this.

As long as the offer’s open, it will be irresistible. So we need to close the offer. Only another god can kill Moloch. We have one on our side, but he needs our help. We should give it to him.

I’d write something here, but there’s nothing funnier I can say.

There’s a whole good commencement speech hidden there where the “AI ReVoLuTiOn” is likened to the industrial revolution. How it is all about turbocharging the exploitation of workers and the planet; how its promise is to make a few immensely rich and give them the power to oppress everyone; and how we need educated, empathetic young people – and especially the liberal arts – to express themselves creatively and push against the system and mainstream narratives, because the only way workers win this “revolution” is the same as always: by song and poem and book and painting that fuels movements and protests.

But what the fuck do I know, I’m not the Vice President of Strategic Alliances for Tavistock Development Company, a real estate firm. I would never be invited to do a commencement speech.

So in highschool, I was one of those annoying kids that went “why do we have to learn how to analyze poems? We’re never gonna need this in real life” in English (well… German, but doesn’t matter) class.

I’m deeply grateful for my teachers back then to patiently get me to do these things anyways, because there came a point in my life years later where I suddenly understood that those “useless” lessons and hours “wasted” analyzing Goethe and Borchert and Fitzgerald handed me the tools to understand media (and not just literature!) instead of just consuming it.

I hope it’s clear how that relates to the screenshot. More than that though, I sometimes feel like the slew of shit media over the past decade is at least in part to blame on writers/studios/… now assuming people do in fact merely consume. But that’s a rant that’s completely off-topic here, so I’ll shut up now.

This may be code for “I don’t want to see uppity women, brown people, and queer people in my shows.”

One of the motivations for fanfiction is that people want more “filler”. They like the characters and (often) the world those characters inhabit, and so they write a story that lets them (and other fans) spend more time with the fiction.

No one is stopping any one from editing out jar jar, if they care that much, just do it. Put up or shut up. /s